Misconceptions of risk
Note:
Preface Acknowledgements 1 Risk is equal to the expected value 2 Risk is a probability or probability distribution 3 Risk equals a probability distribution quantile (value-at-risk) 4 Risk equals uncertainty 5 Risk is equal to an event 6 Risk equals expected disutility 7 Risk is restricted to the case of objective probabilities 8 Risk is the same as risk perception 9 Risk relates to negative consequences only 10 Risk is determined by the historical data 11 Risk assessments produce an objective risk picture 12 There are large inherent uncertainties in risk analyses 13 Model uncertainty should be quantified 14 It is meaningful and useful to distinguish between stochastic and epistemic uncertainties 15 Bayesian analysis is based on the use of probability models and bayesian updating 16 Sensitivity analysis is a type of uncertainty analysis 17 The main objective of risk management is risk reduction 18 Decision-making under uncertainty should be based on science (analysis) 19 The precautionary principle and risk management cannot be meaningfully integrated 20 Conclusions Index